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Prediction for CME (2024-05-04T06:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-04T06:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30437/-1
CME Note: CME to the NE, only seen in STEREO COR2A due to an ongoing SOHO data gap starting at 2024-05-03T23:27Z. Associated with an M9.1-class flare from AR 3663 (N26W09) which peaked at 2024-05-04T06:19Z, best observed in SDO AIA 131. Also observed as an EUV wave and field line movement deflected to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 171/193/211. There are no CME arrival signatures in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-07T00:11Z (-4.61h, +7.44h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
*** Preliminary Forecast ***
This will be updated if SOHO coronagraph imagery becomes available.



Time of Launch: 2024/05/04 06:40Z
Plane of Sky 1: 09:50Z; 15Rsun; NNE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 12:50Z; 15Rsun; SSW Direction
POS Difference: 3:00
POS Midpoint: 11:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.77
Travel Time: ~12.77 * 4:40 = 59:36

Predicted STEREO A Arrival: 2024-05-06T18:16Z


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/04 22:20Z



*** Estimated L1 Arrival Time: 2024-05-06T21:00Z



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*** Forecast using SOHO coronagraph imagery

Time of Launch: 2024/05/04 06:35Z
Plane of Sky 1: 14:25Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 20:15Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction
POS Difference: 5:50
POS Midpoint: 17:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:45

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.1
Travel Time: ~6.1 * 10:45 = 65:36

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-07T00:11Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
*** From what is taken from a prior CME from the region, the travel time to L1's arrival may possibly go through the start of May 8th.


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/07 04:30Z
Lead Time: -4.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-07T04:37Z
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